Predictions · 3. Division Promotion Group · outside model coverage

Vanløse IF

02
Lost

Hørsholm Usserød IK

The model leans Vanløse IF at 50%. Expected goals: Vanløse IF 1.72, Hørsholm Usserød IK 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%. Vanløse IF won 2 of their last 6; Hørsholm Usserød IK won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Vanløse IF52%1.93
XDraw26%3.83
2Hørsholm Usserød IK22%4.51

Pick: Vanløse IF. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.72 – 1.06
LineOverUnder
1.576%24%
2.552%48%
3.530%70%
Both teams to scoreYes54%No46%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.3%
  • 1010.7%
  • 219.7%
  • 209.2%
  • 016.6%
  • 006.2%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Vanløse IF −0.5
Vanløse IF lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.529%71%
-129%24%47%
-0.553%47%
053%24%23%
+0.577%23%
+177%15%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.