Leon
Real Salt Lake
The model leans Real Salt Lake at 50%. Expected goals: Leon 1.15, Real Salt Lake 1.83. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%. Leon won 5 of their last 6; Real Salt Lake won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Leon | 23% | 4.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
| 2Real Salt Lake | 52% | 1.91 | – | – | – |
Pick: Real Salt Lake. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.15 – 1.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–28.5%
- 2–16.1%
- 1–36.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Salt Lake −0.5| Leon line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 15% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 23% | 53% |
| +0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| +1 | 47% | 23% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.