Predictions · Major League Soccer · outside model coverage

Real Salt Lake

34
Lost

FC Dallas

The model leans Real Salt Lake at 38%. Expected goals: Real Salt Lake 1.71, FC Dallas 1.55. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 66%. Real Salt Lake won 1 of their last 6; FC Dallas won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Real Salt Lake41%2.46
XDraw25%3.97
2FC Dallas34%2.92

Pick: Real Salt Lake. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.71 – 1.55
LineOverUnder
1.584%16%
2.563%37%
3.541%59%
Both teams to scoreYes64%No36%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.2%
  • 218.7%
  • 127.9%
  • 226.7%
  • 106.6%
  • 016.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Real Salt Lake 0
Real Salt Lake lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%20%58%
-0.542%58%
042%23%35%
+0.565%35%
+165%18%17%
+1.583%17%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.