Real Salt Lake
Minnesota United
The model leans Real Salt Lake at 46%. Expected goals: Real Salt Lake 1.70, Minnesota United 1.17. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%. Real Salt Lake won 1 of their last 6; Minnesota United won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Salt Lake | 49% | 2.05 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.82 | – | – | – |
| 2Minnesota United | 25% | 3.99 | – | – | – |
Pick: Real Salt Lake. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.70 – 1.17| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–16.6%
- 1–26.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Salt Lake −0.5| Real Salt Lake line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 23% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.