Predictions · Major League Soccer · outside model coverage
Minnesota United
3–3
Lost
Orlando City
The model leans Minnesota United at 54%. Expected goals: Minnesota United 2.59, Orlando City 1.40. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 70%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match63
19
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| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Minnesota United | 63% | 1.60 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.25 | – | – | – |
| 2Orlando City | 18% | 5.43 | – | – | – |
Pick: Minnesota United. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.59 – 1.40| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 56% | 44% |
| Both teams to score | Yes70% | No30% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–16.7%
- 2–06.2%
- 2–26.1%
- 3–05.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Minnesota United −1| Minnesota United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 21% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 18% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 11% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.