San Jose Earthquakes
Minnesota United
The model leans San Jose Earthquakes at 54%. Expected goals: San Jose Earthquakes 2.26, Minnesota United 1.11. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 61%. San Jose Earthquakes won 0 of their last 6; Minnesota United won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1San Jose Earthquakes | 62% | 1.61 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.76 | – | – | – |
| 2Minnesota United | 17% | 5.99 | – | – | – |
Pick: San Jose Earthquakes. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.26 – 1.11| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.8%
- 1–18.6%
- 1–07.8%
- 3–17.3%
- 3–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: San Jose Earthquakes −1| San Jose Earthquakes line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 23% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 11% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.