Houston Dynamo FC
San Jose Earthquakes
The model leans San Jose Earthquakes at 41%. Expected goals: Houston Dynamo FC 1.47, San Jose Earthquakes 1.80. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%. Houston Dynamo FC won 4 of their last 6; San Jose Earthquakes won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Houston Dynamo FC | 31% | 3.26 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.03 | – | – | – |
| 2San Jose Earthquakes | 45% | 2.24 | – | – | – |
Pick: San Jose Earthquakes. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.47 – 1.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–26.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 57% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: San Jose Earthquakes −0.5| Houston Dynamo FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 17% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 23% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 21% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.