Houston Dynamo FC
LA Galaxy
The model leans Houston Dynamo FC at 43%. Expected goals: Houston Dynamo FC 1.80, LA Galaxy 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. Houston Dynamo FC won 4 of their last 6; LA Galaxy won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Houston Dynamo FC | 47% | 2.13 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.98 | – | – | – |
| 2LA Galaxy | 28% | 3.57 | – | – | – |
Pick: Houston Dynamo FC. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.80 – 1.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.7%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–06.9%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Houston Dynamo FC −0.5| Houston Dynamo FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 22% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 16% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.