Predictions · Major League Soccer · outside model coverage

Houston Dynamo FC

10
Won

LA Galaxy

The model leans Houston Dynamo FC at 43%. Expected goals: Houston Dynamo FC 1.80, LA Galaxy 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. Houston Dynamo FC won 4 of their last 6; LA Galaxy won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Houston Dynamo FC47%2.13
XDraw25%3.98
2LA Galaxy28%3.57

Pick: Houston Dynamo FC. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.80 – 1.36
LineOverUnder
1.582%18%
2.561%39%
3.539%61%
Both teams to scoreYes62%No38%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.4%
  • 219.4%
  • 107.7%
  • 127.1%
  • 206.9%
  • 226.3%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Houston Dynamo FC −0.5
Houston Dynamo FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.526%74%
-126%22%52%
-0.548%52%
048%23%29%
+0.571%29%
+171%16%13%
+1.587%13%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.