San Diego FC
LA Galaxy
The model leans San Diego FC at 53%. Expected goals: San Diego FC 2.50, LA Galaxy 1.42. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 70%. San Diego FC won 5 of their last 6; LA Galaxy won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1San Diego FC | 60% | 1.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.06 | – | – | – |
| 2LA Galaxy | 20% | 5.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: San Diego FC. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.50 – 1.42| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes70% | No30% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–26.3%
- 2–06.2%
- 3–25.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: San Diego FC −1| San Diego FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| -1 | 40% | 21% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 18% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 12% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.