San Diego FC
Tijuana
The model leans San Diego FC at 51%. Expected goals: San Diego FC 2.11, Tijuana 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 62%. San Diego FC won 5 of their last 6; Tijuana won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1San Diego FC | 57% | 1.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.44 | – | – | – |
| 2Tijuana | 20% | 4.99 | – | – | – |
Pick: San Diego FC. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.11 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–08.2%
- 1–07.7%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–25.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: San Diego FC −1| San Diego FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 23% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.