Atletico de San Luis
Tijuana
The model leans Atletico de San Luis at 36%. Expected goals: Atletico de San Luis 1.41, Tijuana 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%. Atletico de San Luis won 1 of their last 5; Tijuana won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atletico de San Luis | 37% | 2.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.59 | – | – | – |
| 2Tijuana | 35% | 2.87 | – | – | – |
Pick: Atletico de San Luis. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.41 – 1.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%
- 1–08.9%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.2%
- 0–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atletico de San Luis 0| Atletico de San Luis line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 21% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 25% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.