Atletico de San Luis
Cruz Azul
The model leans Cruz Azul at 42%. Expected goals: Atletico de San Luis 1.35, Cruz Azul 1.72. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. Atletico de San Luis won 1 of their last 5; Cruz Azul won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atletico de San Luis | 29% | 3.44 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.89 | – | – | – |
| 2Cruz Azul | 45% | 2.21 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cruz Azul. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.35 – 1.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–18.0%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–26.9%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cruz Azul −0.5| Atletico de San Luis line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 17% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 22% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.