Cruz Azul
Atlas
The model leans Cruz Azul at 60%. Expected goals: Cruz Azul 2.03, Atlas 0.74. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. Cruz Azul won 3 of their last 6; Atlas won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cruz Azul | 67% | 1.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.60 | – | – | – |
| 2Atlas | 12% | 8.54 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cruz Azul. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.03 – 0.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.9%
- 1–012.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.4%
- 3–08.7%
- 3–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cruz Azul −1| Cruz Azul line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.