Atlas
Tigres
The model leans Tigres at 50%. Expected goals: Atlas 0.87, Tigres 1.54. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 53%. Atlas won 5 of their last 6; Tigres won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlas | 20% | 5.03 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.56 | – | – | – |
| 2Tigres | 52% | 1.92 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tigres. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.87 – 1.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.9%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–09.0%
- 1–07.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tigres −0.5| Atlas line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 14% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| +0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| +1 | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.