Predictions · Leagues Cup · outside model coverage

Tigres

11
Lost

Real Salt Lake

The model leans Tigres at 51%. Expected goals: Tigres 1.85, Real Salt Lake 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%. Tigres won 0 of their last 6; Real Salt Lake won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Tigres57%1.77
XDraw25%4.05
2Real Salt Lake19%5.32

Pick: Tigres. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.85 – 0.99
LineOverUnder
1.578%22%
2.554%46%
3.532%68%
Both teams to scoreYes53%No47%

Most likely scores

  • 1010.8%
  • 1110.7%
  • 2010.0%
  • 219.9%
  • 306.2%
  • 316.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Tigres −1
Tigres lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.533%67%
-133%24%42%
-0.558%42%
058%23%20%
+0.580%20%
+180%13%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.