Tigres
Atletico de San Luis
The model leans Tigres at 62%. Expected goals: Tigres 2.42, Atletico de San Luis 0.85. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 53%. Tigres won 0 of their last 6; Atletico de San Luis won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tigres | 71% | 1.40 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.49 | – | – | – |
| 2Atletico de San Luis | 10% | 9.58 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tigres. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.42 – 0.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.2%
- 3–09.0%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 57% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tigres −1.5| Tigres line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| -1 | 50% | 23% | 28% |
| -0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| 0 | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.