Nashville SC
Atletico de San Luis
The model leans Nashville SC at 63%. Expected goals: Nashville SC 2.31, Atletico de San Luis 0.73. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%. Nashville SC won 4 of their last 6; Atletico de San Luis won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nashville SC | 72% | 1.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.37 | – | – | – |
| 2Atletico de San Luis | 9% | 10.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nashville SC. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.31 – 0.73| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.8%
- 1–011.1%
- 3–09.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.1%
- 3–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nashville SC −1.5| Nashville SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| -1 | 49% | 23% | 27% |
| -0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| 0 | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.