Predictions · Major League Soccer · outside model coverage
Nashville SC
3–2
Won
Columbus Crew
The model leans Nashville SC at 54%. Expected goals: Nashville SC 1.87, Columbus Crew 0.79. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match62
24
14
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nashville SC | 62% | 1.61 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.18 | – | – | – |
| 2Columbus Crew | 14% | 7.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nashville SC. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.87 – 0.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.2%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–07.6%
- 0–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 39% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nashville SC −1| Nashville SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 11% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.