Nashville SC
Leon
The model leans Nashville SC at 69%. Expected goals: Nashville SC 2.62, Leon 0.58. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 58%. Nashville SC won 4 of their last 6; Leon won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nashville SC | 80% | 1.25 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 6.96 | – | – | – |
| 2Leon | 5% | 18.42 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nashville SC. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 80%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.62 – 0.58| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.0%
- 3–012.2%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–18.2%
- 4–08.0%
- 3–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nashville SC −2| Nashville SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| -1 | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| -0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| 0 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.