Leon
Pachuca
The model leans Pachuca at 50%. Expected goals: Leon 0.93, Pachuca 1.53. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%. Leon won 5 of their last 6; Pachuca won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Leon | 22% | 4.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.55 | – | – | – |
| 2Pachuca | 50% | 2.00 | – | – | – |
Pick: Pachuca. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.93 – 1.53| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.0%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.5%
- 1–07.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Pachuca −0.5| Leon line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 26% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.