Pachuca
Queretaro FC
The model leans Pachuca at 52%. Expected goals: Pachuca 1.55, Queretaro FC 0.62. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 62%. Pachuca won 0 of their last 3; Queretaro FC won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pachuca | 59% | 1.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.63 | – | – | – |
| 2Queretaro FC | 14% | 7.27 | – | – | – |
Pick: Pachuca. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.55 – 0.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.6%
- 2–013.7%
- 0–011.4%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Pachuca −1| Pachuca line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 11% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.