Predictions · Liga MX · outside model coverage

Queretaro FC

01
Won

CF America

The model leans CF America at 38%. Expected goals: Queretaro FC 0.95, CF America 1.19. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 56%. Queretaro FC won 1 of their last 6; CF America won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Queretaro FC28%3.60
XDraw32%3.12
2CF America40%2.49

Pick: CF America. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.95 – 1.19
LineOverUnder
1.563%37%
2.536%64%
3.517%83%
Both teams to scoreYes43%No57%

Most likely scores

  • 0114.1%
  • 1113.3%
  • 0011.8%
  • 1011.2%
  • 028.4%
  • 127.9%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Queretaro FC 0
Queretaro FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.510%90%
-110%19%71%
-0.529%71%
029%29%42%
+0.558%42%
+158%24%18%
+1.582%18%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.