Pumas
Queretaro FC
The model leans Pumas at 55%. Expected goals: Pumas 1.94, Queretaro FC 0.77. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%. Pumas won 1 of their last 6; Queretaro FC won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pumas | 64% | 1.56 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.36 | – | – | – |
| 2Queretaro FC | 13% | 7.63 | – | – | – |
Pick: Pumas. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.94 – 0.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.9%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–08.1%
- 0–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 44% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Pumas −1| Pumas line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| -1 | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 10% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.