Pumas
Necaxa
The model leans Pumas at 60%. Expected goals: Pumas 2.34, Necaxa 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 57%. Pumas won 1 of their last 6; Necaxa won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pumas | 67% | 1.49 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.09 | – | – | – |
| 2Necaxa | 13% | 7.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: Pumas. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.34 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–18.3%
- 3–07.9%
- 3–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Pumas −1.5| Pumas line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| -1 | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| -0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| 0 | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 9% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.