Tijuana
Pumas
The model leans Tijuana at 37%. Expected goals: Tijuana 1.42, Pumas 1.27. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 56%. Tijuana won 2 of their last 6; Pumas won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tijuana | 39% | 2.53 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.54 | – | – | – |
| 2Pumas | 32% | 3.10 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tijuana. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.42 – 1.27| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 38% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tijuana 0| Tijuana line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 21% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 26% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 19% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.