FC Cincinnati
Pumas
The model leans FC Cincinnati at 40%. Expected goals: FC Cincinnati 2.07, Pumas 1.86. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 75%. FC Cincinnati won 1 of their last 3; Pumas won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Cincinnati | 43% | 2.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.48 | – | – | – |
| 2Pumas | 35% | 2.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Cincinnati. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.07 – 1.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes74% | No26% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.8%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.0%
- 3–15.4%
- 3–25.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Cincinnati 0| FC Cincinnati line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 19% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 21% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 17% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.