Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
The model leans Nashville SC at 61%. Expected goals: Nashville SC 2.53, FC Cincinnati 1.04. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 60%. Nashville SC won 4 of their last 6; FC Cincinnati won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nashville SC | 69% | 1.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.47 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Cincinnati | 13% | 7.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nashville SC. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.53 – 1.04| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.0%
- 3–17.9%
- 3–07.6%
- 1–17.4%
- 1–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nashville SC −1.5| Nashville SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| -1 | 48% | 22% | 30% |
| -0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| 0 | 70% | 17% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 9% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.