FC Cincinnati
Atlas
The model leans FC Cincinnati at 55%. Expected goals: FC Cincinnati 2.33, Atlas 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 62%. FC Cincinnati won 1 of their last 3; Atlas won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Cincinnati | 63% | 1.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.88 | – | – | – |
| 2Atlas | 17% | 6.06 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Cincinnati. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.33 – 1.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–18.3%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–07.3%
- 3–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Cincinnati −1| FC Cincinnati line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 22% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.