FC Juarez
Pumas
The model leans Pumas at 39%. Expected goals: FC Juarez 1.64, Pumas 1.83. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 69%. FC Juarez won 2 of their last 6; Pumas won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Juarez | 34% | 2.94 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.14 | – | – | – |
| 2Pumas | 42% | 2.39 | – | – | – |
Pick: Pumas. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.64 – 1.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.3%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.7%
- 0–25.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Juarez 0| FC Juarez line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 18% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 22% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 20% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.