Minnesota United
FC Juarez
The model leans Minnesota United at 53%. Expected goals: Minnesota United 2.25, FC Juarez 1.21. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 64%. Minnesota United won 1 of their last 6; FC Juarez won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Minnesota United | 60% | 1.67 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.68 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Juarez | 19% | 5.34 | – | – | – |
Pick: Minnesota United. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.25 – 1.21| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.6%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–08.0%
- 3–17.2%
- 1–07.1%
- 3–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Minnesota United −1| Minnesota United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 22% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 20% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.