Minnesota United
Atlanta United
The model leans Minnesota United at 54%. Expected goals: Minnesota United 1.97, Atlanta United 0.85. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 50%. Minnesota United won 1 of their last 6; Atlanta United won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Minnesota United | 62% | 1.60 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.34 | – | – | – |
| 2Atlanta United | 15% | 6.89 | – | – | – |
Pick: Minnesota United. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.97 – 0.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.7%
- 2–011.5%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.6%
- 3–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Minnesota United −1| Minnesota United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 25% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.