Predictions · Major League Soccer · outside model coverage

Charlotte FC

22
Lost

Atlanta United

The model leans Charlotte FC at 53%. Expected goals: Charlotte FC 1.86, Atlanta United 0.87. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 50%. Charlotte FC won 1 of their last 3; Atlanta United won 1 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Charlotte FC60%1.68
XDraw24%4.11
2Atlanta United16%6.20

Pick: Charlotte FC. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.86 – 0.87
LineOverUnder
1.576%24%
2.551%49%
3.529%71%
Both teams to scoreYes49%No51%

Most likely scores

  • 1012.1%
  • 2011.3%
  • 1110.6%
  • 219.8%
  • 307.0%
  • 006.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 46% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Charlotte FC −1
Charlotte FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.536%64%
-136%25%39%
-0.561%39%
061%22%17%
+0.583%17%
+183%12%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.