Real Salt Lake
FC Juarez
The model leans Real Salt Lake at 54%. Expected goals: Real Salt Lake 2.37, FC Juarez 1.19. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 64%. Real Salt Lake won 1 of their last 6; FC Juarez won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Salt Lake | 63% | 1.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.94 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Juarez | 17% | 5.87 | – | – | – |
Pick: Real Salt Lake. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.37 – 1.19| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–08.0%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–06.7%
- 3–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Salt Lake −1| Real Salt Lake line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 22% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 11% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.