Toluca
FC Juárez
The model leans Toluca at 64%. Expected goals: Toluca 2.75, FC Juárez 0.98. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 59%. Toluca won 5 of their last 6; FC Juárez won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Toluca | 74% | 1.36 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.22 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Juárez | 10% | 9.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: Toluca. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 74%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.75 – 0.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 2–09.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–08.3%
- 3–18.2%
- 1–06.6%
- 1–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Toluca −1.5| Toluca line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| -1 | 54% | 21% | 26% |
| -0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| 0 | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 7% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.