Queretaro FC
Toluca
The model leans Toluca at 50%. Expected goals: Queretaro FC 0.86, Toluca 1.58. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%. Queretaro FC won 1 of their last 6; Toluca won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Queretaro FC | 19% | 5.21 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
| 2Toluca | 53% | 1.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: Toluca. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.86 – 1.58| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.8%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–210.9%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.8%
- 1–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Toluca −0.5| Queretaro FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 14% | 80% |
| -0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| 0 | 20% | 25% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 26% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.