FC Dallas
Queretaro FC
The model leans FC Dallas at 62%. Expected goals: FC Dallas 2.33, Queretaro FC 0.78. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 50%. FC Dallas won 4 of their last 6; Queretaro FC won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Dallas | 71% | 1.40 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.35 | – | – | – |
| 2Queretaro FC | 10% | 10.03 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Dallas. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.33 – 0.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.1%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.4%
- 1–18.1%
- 3–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Dallas −1.5| FC Dallas line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| -1 | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| -0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| 0 | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.