Predictions · Major League Soccer · outside model coverage

Vancouver Whitecaps

50
Won

FC Dallas

The model leans Vancouver Whitecaps at 54%. Expected goals: Vancouver Whitecaps 2.30, FC Dallas 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 63%. Vancouver Whitecaps won 3 of their last 6; FC Dallas won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Vancouver Whitecaps61%1.63
XDraw21%4.79
2FC Dallas18%5.66

Pick: Vancouver Whitecaps. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.30 – 1.18
LineOverUnder
1.586%14%
2.568%32%
3.546%54%
Both teams to scoreYes62%No38%

Most likely scores

  • 219.6%
  • 118.4%
  • 208.1%
  • 317.4%
  • 107.1%
  • 306.2%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Vancouver Whitecaps −1
Vancouver Whitecaps lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.540%60%
-140%22%38%
-0.562%38%
062%19%19%
+0.581%19%
+181%11%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.