Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
The model leans Vancouver Whitecaps at 68%. Expected goals: Sporting Kansas City 0.84, Vancouver Whitecaps 2.76. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 54%. Sporting Kansas City won 1 of their last 6; Vancouver Whitecaps won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting Kansas City | 8% | 12.30 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.61 | – | – | – |
| 2Vancouver Whitecaps | 77% | 1.30 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vancouver Whitecaps. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.84 – 2.76| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 0–210.4%
- 0–39.6%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–17.6%
- 0–46.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vancouver Whitecaps −2| Sporting Kansas City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 6% | 91% |
| -0.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| 0 | 9% | 14% | 77% |
| +0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| +1 | 23% | 20% | 57% |
| +1.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.