Sporting Kansas City
St. Louis City
The model leans St. Louis City at 53%. Expected goals: Sporting Kansas City 1.14, St. Louis City 2.13. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%. Sporting Kansas City won 1 of their last 6; St. Louis City won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting Kansas City | 19% | 5.38 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.50 | – | – | – |
| 2St. Louis City | 59% | 1.69 | – | – | – |
Pick: St. Louis City. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.14 – 2.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–28.7%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–37.0%
- 0–36.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: St. Louis City −1| Sporting Kansas City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 12% | 80% |
| -0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| 0 | 20% | 20% | 60% |
| +0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| +1 | 40% | 23% | 37% |
| +1.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.