St. Louis City
Real Salt Lake
The model leans St. Louis City at 44%. Expected goals: St. Louis City 1.74, Real Salt Lake 1.27. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%. St. Louis City won 4 of their last 6; Real Salt Lake won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1St. Louis City | 47% | 2.11 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.89 | – | – | – |
| 2Real Salt Lake | 27% | 3.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: St. Louis City. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.74 – 1.27| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–26.9%
- 0–16.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: St. Louis City −0.5| St. Louis City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 22% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 24% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 16% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.