Predictions · Major League Soccer · outside model coverage

St. Louis City

10
Won

Colorado Rapids

The model leans St. Louis City at 50%. Expected goals: St. Louis City 1.89, Colorado Rapids 1.26. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. St. Louis City won 4 of their last 6; Colorado Rapids won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1St. Louis City51%1.95
XDraw24%4.09
2Colorado Rapids24%4.11

Pick: St. Louis City. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.89 – 1.26
LineOverUnder
1.582%18%
2.561%39%
3.539%61%
Both teams to scoreYes61%No39%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.2%
  • 219.6%
  • 108.1%
  • 207.7%
  • 126.4%
  • 316.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: St. Louis City −0.5
St. Louis City lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.530%70%
-130%22%48%
-0.552%48%
052%22%25%
+0.575%25%
+175%15%10%
+1.590%10%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.