Predictions · Major League Soccer · outside model coverage

Colorado Rapids

10
Won

Austin FC

The model leans Colorado Rapids at 52%. Expected goals: Colorado Rapids 2.14, Austin FC 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 61%. Colorado Rapids won 4 of their last 6; Austin FC won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Colorado Rapids59%1.70
XDraw22%4.50
2Austin FC19%5.29

Pick: Colorado Rapids. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.14 – 1.16
LineOverUnder
1.584%16%
2.564%36%
3.542%58%
Both teams to scoreYes60%No40%

Most likely scores

  • 219.8%
  • 119.2%
  • 208.5%
  • 108.0%
  • 317.0%
  • 306.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Colorado Rapids −1
Colorado Rapids lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.537%63%
-137%23%40%
-0.560%40%
060%20%20%
+0.580%20%
+180%12%8%
+1.592%8%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.