Colorado Rapids
Austin FC
The model leans Colorado Rapids at 52%. Expected goals: Colorado Rapids 2.14, Austin FC 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 61%. Colorado Rapids won 4 of their last 6; Austin FC won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Colorado Rapids | 59% | 1.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.50 | – | – | – |
| 2Austin FC | 19% | 5.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: Colorado Rapids. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.14 – 1.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–08.0%
- 3–17.0%
- 3–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Colorado Rapids −1| Colorado Rapids line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 23% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.