Austin FC
FC Dallas
The model leans FC Dallas at 47%. Expected goals: Austin FC 1.47, FC Dallas 1.99. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%. Austin FC won 2 of their last 6; FC Dallas won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Austin FC | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.25 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Dallas | 49% | 2.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Dallas. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.47 – 1.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.2%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.2%
- 0–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Dallas −0.5| Austin FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 16% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 22% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 21% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.