Chivas
FC Dallas
The model leans Chivas at 43%. Expected goals: Chivas 1.87, FC Dallas 1.47. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. Chivas won 2 of their last 6; FC Dallas won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chivas | 46% | 2.16 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.11 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Dallas | 29% | 3.40 | – | – | – |
Pick: Chivas. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.87 – 1.47| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
- 2–06.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Chivas −0.5| Chivas line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 21% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 22% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 16% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.