Chivas
Toluca
The model leans Chivas at 37%. Expected goals: Chivas 1.51, Toluca 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. Chivas won 2 of their last 6; Toluca won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chivas | 40% | 2.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.68 | – | – | – |
| 2Toluca | 33% | 3.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: Chivas. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.51 – 1.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–17.7%
- 2–06.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Chivas 0| Chivas line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 21% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.