Predictions · Leagues Cup · outside model coverage

Seattle Sounders FC

12
Lost

Chivas

The model leans Seattle Sounders FC at 51%. Expected goals: Seattle Sounders FC 1.80, Chivas 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%. Seattle Sounders FC won 0 of their last 6; Chivas won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Seattle Sounders FC56%1.79
XDraw25%3.97
2Chivas19%5.25

Pick: Seattle Sounders FC. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.80 – 0.97
LineOverUnder
1.576%24%
2.552%48%
3.530%70%
Both teams to scoreYes52%No48%

Most likely scores

  • 1011.3%
  • 1110.9%
  • 2010.1%
  • 219.8%
  • 006.3%
  • 306.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Seattle Sounders FC −1
Seattle Sounders FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.532%68%
-132%24%43%
-0.557%43%
057%23%20%
+0.580%20%
+180%13%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.