Portland Timbers
Seattle Sounders FC
The model leans Seattle Sounders FC at 44%. Expected goals: Portland Timbers 1.08, Seattle Sounders FC 1.57. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Portland Timbers won 3 of their last 6; Seattle Sounders FC won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portland Timbers | 25% | 3.98 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
| 2Seattle Sounders FC | 47% | 2.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: Seattle Sounders FC. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.08 – 1.57| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.7%
- 1–07.7%
- 0–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 40% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Seattle Sounders FC −0.5| Portland Timbers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 16% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 25% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 24% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.