Portland Timbers
Puebla
The model leans Portland Timbers at 60%. Expected goals: Portland Timbers 2.18, Puebla 0.83. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Portland Timbers won 3 of their last 6; Puebla won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portland Timbers | 67% | 1.49 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.85 | – | – | – |
| 2Puebla | 12% | 8.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: Portland Timbers. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.18 – 0.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.7%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.9%
- 3–08.5%
- 3–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Portland Timbers −1.5| Portland Timbers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| -0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| 0 | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.