CF América
Puebla
The model leans CF América at 61%. Expected goals: CF América 2.12, Puebla 0.68. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. CF América won 4 of their last 6; Puebla won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1CF América | 70% | 1.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.92 | – | – | – |
| 2Puebla | 10% | 10.26 | – | – | – |
Pick: CF América. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.12 – 0.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 2–013.7%
- 1–013.0%
- 3–09.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.8%
- 3–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: CF América −1.5| CF América line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| -1 | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| -0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| 0 | 71% | 19% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.