Predictions · Leagues Cup · outside model coverage

CF America

31
Won

Portland Timbers

The model leans CF America at 50%. Expected goals: CF America 1.64, Portland Timbers 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%. CF America won 4 of their last 6; Portland Timbers won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1CF America51%1.96
XDraw27%3.71
2Portland Timbers22%4.54

Pick: CF America. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.64 – 1.01
LineOverUnder
1.574%26%
2.549%51%
3.527%73%
Both teams to scoreYes51%No49%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.7%
  • 1011.6%
  • 219.6%
  • 209.5%
  • 017.1%
  • 007.1%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 40% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: CF America −0.5
CF America lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.528%72%
-128%24%48%
-0.552%48%
052%25%23%
+0.577%23%
+177%15%8%
+1.592%8%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.